Atlantic hurricane activity is usually nearing its peak at this time of year, and it seemed as if this August would be no exception. Tropical waters are extraordinarily warm, and two hurricanes have already pounded U.S. shores.

So why — despite predictions that this year’s hurricane season would be historically active — are the tropics suddenly so quiet?

There is a combination of factors demonstrating how even the most confident long-term forecasts are subject to unpredictable short-term influences.

Source: Why hurricane season is suddenly quiet — and what could be next – The Washington Post