Is there anything more worthless than the weather service information on “chance of rain?” Why bother to provide it at all? Rain is so hit-or-miss that any stats are essentially worthless.
If you think about it, the chance of somebody getting rain is pretty much 100 percent. It just may not be anywhere near you.
While driving around today, I noticed gathering clouds. Rain clouds, to be exact. They’re gonna rain on somebody nearby; the chance of that is 100 percent. Still, the official forecast says 40 percent.
What the forecast needs to say is the chance that rain will fall somewhere within the area. In addition to that, there needs to be a chance that that rain will fall on any particular spot, which is what is done now. Thus, there is a 100 percent chance of rain in the area, but only a 40 percent chance it will fall any particular place.
Or I can just poke my head outside every now and then to check. That might make more sense.
I think they should use a weather dog. You put him outside right before you give the forecast. If he comes in panting, forecast hot weather. If he comes in wet, forecast rain.
If he doesn’t come back at all, forecast wind.