Yesterday afternoon I had just sat down in the recliner when my weather radio began sounding. I found this quite odd as a glance out the window showed calm winds and sunny skies. As soon as I’d reset my radio and sit down again, it would sound again! It turns out it was a flash flood warning – for today. I guess the NWS wasn’t taking any chances in alerting the public.
The forecast calls for up to three inches of rain to fall tonight:
* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING… WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
* THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN PARTICULAR… CREEKS THAT TEND TO RISE QUICKLY WITH HEAVY RAIN… INCLUDING CRABTREE CREEK IN THE TRIANGLE… BUFFALO CREEK IN THE TRIAD… AND CROSS CREEK IN FAYETTEVILLE… MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MAINSTEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE HAW… TAR… NEUSE… AND ROCKY RIVER ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A look at the forecast discussion is even more alarming (emphasis mine):
DAMAGING WIND AND FLOOD THREAT FOR TONIGHT ARE THE FORECAST PROBLEM. IT APPEARS UNAVOIDABLE THAT FLOODING OF SOME NATURE WILL OCCUR. GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND WILL BE LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM CONCRETE DURING THIS EVENT… ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RUNOFF. DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR. EXCLUDING URBAN AND SUBURBAN FLOODING… THE THREAT IS HIGHEST NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE… AND MATCHES WELL WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. MAIN STEM RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN SPOTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
So, the ground is already fully saturated, heavy rain will pour tonight, and damaging winds will accompany the rain. That’s a recipe for fallen trees and downed power lines. I wonder what the place will look like tomorrow.