Winter weather on the way

The weather this weekend promises to be exciting. Anytime forecasters face the chance of snow there’s a mad scramble to determine the amount and where it will fall. Too often the forecast is wildly off the mark, but the storm predicted for Friday evening will affect such a wide portion of the state it appears a sure thing that most everyone will experience something.

Greg Fishel said it’s highly unusual for a winter storm watch to be announced so far in advance. Precipitation estimates range from 3 to a whopping 11 inches! It will all come down to the wire Friday evening, but it seems certain that something will happen.

Here’s the latest winter storm warning message from the NWS:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

.A WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-291000-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0001.100129T2300Z-100131T0500Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROXBORO…OXFORD…HENDERSON…
WARRENTON…ROANOKE RAPIDS…WINSTON-SALEM…GREENSBORO…
HIGH POINT…BURLINGTON…CHAPEL HILL…DURHAM…LOUISBURG…
NASHVILLE…LEXINGTON…ASHEBORO…PITTSBORO…RALEIGH
937 PM EST THU JAN 28 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT…

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SATURDAY NIGHT.
Continue reading →

Looks like we’re in for nasty weather

Yesterday afternoon I had just sat down in the recliner when my weather radio began sounding. I found this quite odd as a glance out the window showed calm winds and sunny skies. As soon as I’d reset my radio and sit down again, it would sound again! It turns out it was a flash flood warning – for today. I guess the NWS wasn’t taking any chances in alerting the public.

The forecast calls for up to three inches of rain to fall tonight:

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING… WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
* THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN PARTICULAR… CREEKS THAT TEND TO RISE QUICKLY WITH HEAVY RAIN… INCLUDING CRABTREE CREEK IN THE TRIANGLE… BUFFALO CREEK IN THE TRIAD… AND CROSS CREEK IN FAYETTEVILLE… MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING. HIGH WATER IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MAINSTEM RIVERS INCLUDING THE HAW… TAR… NEUSE… AND ROCKY RIVER ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE RISES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Continue reading →

Highlights of 2009: Tornadic storm

The year 2009 was mostly unexceptional, weather wise. Temperatures stayed in the seasonal ranges for a change. We had a spring season that lasted longer than what always seems like two weeks; summer was warm but not broiling hot, with few 100+ degree days; we got plenty of rain, and no hurricanes hit this year. All that considered, there was one notable weather event I’d rather not repeat: a tornadic storm on May 5th.

I’d never been anywhere near a tornado before. I remember as a kid growing up outside Atlanta our parents would rouse us from our sleep and carry us to the hallway where we’d be plopped down in the middle of mattresses while a tornado passed somewhere outside. Then there was that time in 2005 when I heard the frightening sound of wind that seemed alive. That incident prompted me to get a weather radio so that our family would never be surprised again.
Continue reading →

Winter solstice

Today is the winter solstice: the first day of winter and the start of the sun’s long climb back up the sky. Not only that, it’s a beautiful, sunny (if cold), peaceful day. It’s the kind of day that makes me glad to be alive.

Storm passes us by

The major snowstorm expected to hit here actually headed north, where it dumped almost two feet of snow on some areas in Virginia.

We’ve got cold drizzly rain here. Can’t say I’m jealous, actually.

Snow bound for Piedmont

Looks like Wince-tin-Salem might be the recipient of the bulk of this storm’s snow, said by forecasters to possibly exceed a foot!

Here in Rawlee we may see an inch of snow before it changes to rain. Or we could see more. Who knows?

Winter weather ahead

I’ve heard mention of a winter storm watch for this weekend. After checking the forecast models and reading the forecast discussion, it does indeed seem as if someone is going to be hammered with massive snowfall. The question is where?

No-go for snow

Looks like all we’ll get Saturday night is rain. Latest forecast discussion:

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT…
MODELS HAVE REALLY ACCELERATED THE TIMING OF BOTH THE COASTAL LOW AND THE UPPER WAVE PASSAGE THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS…WITH THE NAM THE ONLY MODEL KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. IN FACT THE GFS…GEM AND THE EC NOW HAVE THE SURFACE LOW APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELAWARE/MARYLAND SHORE…WITH THE UPPER WAVE CLOSE BY. IN SHORT…THE FASTER TIMING RESULTS IN LESS TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH VALUES THAT FAVOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. THUS DON`T EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY SHUTS DOWN…MAKING THIS
A NONE [sic] EVENT.

No snow but it will still be cold enough to finish off my tomato plants. Bah!

Snow this weekend?

Looks like snow is a possibility this weekend. This came from today’s NWS forecast discussion (emphasis mine):

THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET REALLY INTERESTING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING WHEN MID-LEVEL CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE STARTS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST…WITH CAA IN THE LOW-LEVELS KICKING IN AT THE SAME TIME AS LIFTING OFFSHORE LOW REINFORCES THE LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS THE 850 LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA…WITH MODELS SHOWING STRONG 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND LOW TO THE COAST WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR IN BOTH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CAA SURGE…BUT MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SATURDAY EVENING BETWEEN 21 TO 00Z…TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BUT AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE…IT WILL BE A FINE LINE/NARROW WINDOW BEFORE THE INVADING COLD/DRY AIR SURGE COMPLETELY DRYS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. GFS IS VERY QUICK TO DRY OUT THE COLUMN…WHILE THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER…MAINTAINING DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL ABOVE THE -15 TO -18C LAYER. THIS FITS WELL WITH P-TYPE TRENDS AS WELL. IN SHORT…AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
Continue reading →

Camping trip

Last week’s rainy weather had all of us itching to get out of the house. In spite of the dreary rainy week I knew the forecast promised a nice weekend: with clear skies and mid-70s temperatures it promised to be perhaps the best weather of any weekend until spring. I decided it would be a good time for us to finally take the kids on the camping trip we’d been talking about the whole year.

It had been four years since we’d camped anywhere. Travis was then just a baby and woke up wailing. It was high time we tried again. I was considering both Jordan Lake and Umstead State Park but chose Umstead this time around. After a few minutes of booking online, we were all set to go.
Continue reading →